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Foros de la Plataforma por una Vivienda Digna
www.viviendadigna.org/foros
Foros abiertos al público para el debate sobre el derecho y la política de vivienda, la economía, etc.
La organización no se responsabiliza, ni avala los comentarios que se hacen libremente en este foro
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Luisc
Registrado: 07 Jun 2006
Mensajes: 19
Ubicación: Madrid
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 Publicado: Mar Jun 20, 2006 11:35 am Asunto: La prensa internacional y nuestra burbuja |
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La prensa internacional no tiene pelos en la lengua -ni intereses creados- en este asunto y llama a las cosas por su nombre. Si hace unos días el Financial Times habló literalmente de una burbuja inmobiliaria española que va a estallar...
Pincha aquí
...ahora es The Guardian el diario quien augura tiempos duros, muy duros para la economía española...
http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,1800544,00.html
En una parte del artículo llegan a decir que la pérdida de instrumentos propios para controlar la economía desde que entramos en el euro (ahora es el Banco Central Europeo el que toma las decisiones, y si hay un porblema específicamente español como éste no se van a joder todos congelando los tipos de interés para salvarnos de nuestra propia irresponsabilidad, como tampoco van a cambiar el modo en el que se calcula el IPC porque sólo nosotros lo pidamos) va a llevar al sector inmobiliario a caer por su propio peso. Advierten a los propietarios británicos de la Costa del Sol que, cuando ese momento llegue, "va a ser tremendamente doloroso". Tanto, que lo comparan con la película "La aventura del Poseidón". Para quien no la conozca, viene a ser lo mismo que hacer comparaciones con "Titanic".
Si a esto unimos lo que dijo ayer el portavoz de las constructoras en "59 segundos", reconociendo explícitamente que este ritmo de construcción no es sostenible, está claro que se avecina el GRAN BATACAZO. |
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agutierrezf
Registrado: 04 Jun 2006
Mensajes: 10
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| Publicado: Mar Jun 20, 2006 1:19 pm Asunto: articulo en The Guardian |
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Hola, puedes colgar el texto del articulo de "The Guardian", porque el enlace no me funciona.
Gracias. |
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billy
Registrado: 15 Oct 2005
Mensajes: 3116
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Luisc
Registrado: 07 Jun 2006
Mensajes: 19
Ubicación: Madrid
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| Publicado: Mar Jun 20, 2006 1:33 pm Asunto: Re: articulo en The Guardian |
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| agutierrezf escribió: | Hola, puedes colgar el texto del articulo de "The Guardian", porque el enlace no me funciona.
Gracias. |
Lógicamente, está todo en inglés. Además es un poco largo, por lo que voy a eliminar algunos fragmentos que no hablan directamente de la burbuja española. Ahí va el texto(pongo en negrita los fragmentos que se refieren a España):
<<The pain in Spain is there for all to see
Gordon Brown did the right thing by refusing to join the eurozone
Larry Elliott, economics editor
Monday June 19, 2006
The Guardian
Back in 1972 there was a disaster movie called the Poseidon Adventure. A luxury cruise went horribly wrong, the ship turned turtle and the rich passengers had to escape somehow from their upside-down world. Coincidentally, a year later, the world economy went belly up.
This year sees the remake, Poseidon; shorter title, same idea, similar plot, better special effects. And, what do you know, the good old world economy is again threatening to replicate art (sic) by capsizing. Governments everywhere have been put on notice by the International Monetary Fund that sorting out the global imbalances is a top priority, as indeed it is.
Most of the attention has been on the US trade deficit and China's undervalued currency. Europe tends to be left out, because, taken as a whole, the eurozone looks to be pretty much in balance. Growth is a bit weak, domestic demand even more so, but there is no evidence that the continent is living well beyond its means. That, though, is something of an illusion. Within the eurozone, there are imbalances that are a microcosm of the global economy. Germany is the country that has the competitive advantage over its partners; Spain the country with the US-style profligacy.
Costa del Sol
Spain is a particular concern. The IMF, in its annual health check last week, noted that growth had become "increasingly lopsided" and that was reflected in higher inflation than the 12-nation eurozone as a whole and in a rising current account deficit. In truth, the IMF assessment is a bit of an understatement. Spain's current account is on course to hit 9%-10% of GDP next year; its private sector has moved from a position where it was in surplus by 6% of GDP in the early 1990s to a position where it is in deficit by 8% of GDP. These are bigger deficits than those of the US. Spain has been growing much faster than the rest of the eurozone; indeed, without Spain, Europe's recent growth record would have been even poorer. Charles Dumas, of Lombard Street Research, noted last week that Spain accounts for around 12% of the eurozone economy, but between 2000 and 2005 it accounted for 32% of eurozone GDP growth and 39% of eurozone domestic demand.
Most of this growth came from a construction and property boom, which has masked a deeper problem of increasing uncompetitiveness. Spain's unit labour costs have been rising much faster than elsewhere in the eurozone and productivity has been poor. Traditionally, there would be two ways of coping with this problem: the Spanish government would raise interest rates to choke off speculation in the construction sector or there would be a sharp fall in the peseta to make Spanish goods more competitive. Neither, of course, is open to Madrid, which signed up for the euro when it was launched. As Mr Dumas rightly noted, the lack of any policy instruments means the property boom will go on until it collapses under its own weight. There is no knowing when this will be but - UK home owners on the Costa del Sol, please note - when it does it will be mightily painful.
(...)
Mr Brown and Mr Balls take great satisfaction from this, as well they might. It was a brave, and correct, decision to face down the euro-fanatics in 1997 and 2003 and, for once, insist that politics had to be subservient to economics. Had Britain joined, we would have had a Spanish-style property boom followed by an almighty crash. Lacking the political commitment to the euro shown by Spain and the other founder members, Mr Brown was concerned that a catastrophic boom-bust cycle would have led not only to pressure for withdrawal from the euro but secession from the European Union. And he is absolutely right, because that is what would have happened.>> |
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