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[billy]

On the decline

Moody's Economy.com looks at the 100 largest markets and predicts their tops, their bottoms - and total price drops.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The housing market will get worse before it gets better - that's the finding of an analysis by Moody's Economy.com.

In the survey of 379 metro areas, the study's authors project that nearly 20 areas eventually could experience a "crash," or a decline of more than 10 percent from peak to trough. The most hard-hit areas will be in California, the Southwest coast of Florida, and in Arizona and Nevada.

Nationwide, the study forecasts a 3.6 percent decline in the sales price of existing homes.

The table below shows only those markets among the 100 largest by population that are forecast to have declines. In an analysis that considered mortgage rates, the local job market and other factors, the study makes projections on when those markets would peak, when they would hit their worst point, and what the total decline would be.

Moody's Home Price Forecast
Area State Peak to bottom
home price decline Peak Bottom
Cape Coral FL -18.6 Q4 2005 Q2 2007
Reno NV -17.2 Q4 2005 Q4 2008
Merced CA -16.1 Q4 2005 Q2 2009
Stockton CA -15.7 Q4 2005 Q4 2008
Sarasota FL -14.0 Q4 2005 Q3 2007
Naples FL -13.8 Q4 2005 Q3 2007
Tucson AZ -13.4 Q1 2006 Q2 2008
Las Vegas NV -12.9 Q4 2005 Q2 2009
Chico CA -12.6 Q4 2005 Q2 2008
Fresno CA -12.5 Q1 2006 Q2 2009
Atlantic City NJ -12.2 Q4 2005 Q2 2008
Vallejo CA -12.1 Q4 2005 Q2 2009
Washington DC -12.0 Q4 2005 Q2 2008
Redding CA -11.8 Q1 2006 Q2 2008
Detroit MI -11.7 Q3 2005 Q4 2006
Riverside CA -11.4 Q1 2006 Q4 2008
Bloomington IL -11.1 Q3 2005 Q4 2006
Bakersfield CA -11.1 Q1 2006 Q2 2009
Greeley CO -10.7 Q1 2006 Q2 2008
Salinas CA -10.3 Q4 2005 Q2 2008
Santa Ana CA -10.0 Q1 2006 Q4 2008
Sacramento CA -9.9 Q4 2005 Q2 2008
Carson City NV -9.8 Q1 2006 Q2 2009
Phoenix AZ -9.3 Q1 2006 Q2 2008
Punta Gorda FL -8.9 Q1 2006 Q2 2007
San Diego CA -8.5 Q4 2005 Q2 2008
Warren MI -8.4 Q3 2005 Q4 2006
Allentown PA -8.2 Q4 2005 Q2 2008
Nassau NY -8.1 Q1 2006 Q2 2008
Fort Walton Beach FL -7.9 Q2 2005 Q3 2006
Santa Rosa CA -7.9 Q4 2005 Q2 2008
Ocean City NJ -7.6 Q1 2007 Q2 2010
Visalia CA -7.3 Q4 2005 Q4 2008
Rockford IL -7.3 Q1 2006 Q1 2009
Santa Barbara CA -7.2 Q4 2005 Q2 2008
Worcester MA -7.0 Q4 2005 Q2 2007
New Orleans LA -6.7 Q4 2005 Q3 2007
Saginaw MI -6.5 Q1 2006 Q2 2009
Oakland CA -6.4 Q4 2005 Q2 2008
Fort Collins CO -6.1 Q3 2005 Q2 2007
Portland ME -5.9 Q1 2006 Q1 2007
Fort Lauderdale FL -5.9 Q4 2005 Q3 2007
West Palm Beach FL -5.7 Q4 2005 Q3 2006
Miami FL -5.5 Q1 2006 Q2 2008
Edison NJ -5.2 Q1 2006 Q2 2008
Los Angeles CA -4.8 Q2 2006 Q4 2008
Denver CO -4.6 Q2 2006 Q2 2008
Napa CA -3.8 Q1 2006 Q3 2006
Providence RI -3.6 Q3 2005 Q2 2007
New York NY -3.5 Q2 2006 Q4 2008
Champaign IL -3.5 Q4 2005 Q1 2009
Essex County MA -3.1 Q3 2005 Q3 2006
Bethesda MD -3.0 Q4 2005 Q2 2008
Boulder CO -2.8 Q4 2005 Q3 2006
Yuba City CA -2.6 Q4 2005 Q3 2006
Salt Lake City UT -2.3 Q1 2006 Q3 2006
Boston MA -2.2 Q2 2006 Q3 2006
Pueblo CO -2.1 Q1 2006 Q3 2006
Prescott AZ -2.0 Q1 2006 Q2 2008
Madera CA -1.8 Q1 2007 Q2 2009
Colorado Springs CO -1.6 Q2 2006 Q3 2006
Grand Junction CO -1.3 Q2 2006 Q3 2006
Portland OR -0.8 Q3 2007 Q2 2009
Lewiston ID -0.8 Q1 2007 Q2 2008
St. George UT -0.5 Q3 2007 Q2 2008
Honolulu HI -0.3 Q2 2007 Q4 2008
Milwaukee WI -0.3 Q2 2007 Q3 2008
Hagerstown MD -0.2 Q3 2007 Q2 2008
Medford OR -0.2 Q3 2007 Q2 2008
San Jose CA -0.2 Q1 2007 Q2 2007

http://money.cnn.com/2006/10/05/real_estate/moodys/index.htm?postversion=2006100611